"The current impasse on the movement on the Lachin corridor can lead to the complete evacuation of the Armenian population of Nagorno-Karabakh. Besides the legal, moral, and logistical impediments to implementing such an initiative, it will become a geopolitical disaster for the region. It will only deepen the mistrust and hatred between Armenians and Azerbaijanis and prepare a subsequent cycle of violence in the future, as Armenians will take all steps to avenge such a national humiliation", writes Benyamin Poghosyan, in this op-ed for KarabakhSpace.
There are no optimal solutions that will satisfy all sides. The choice will be made between bad, worse, and the worst options. The only way out is to find a "middle way," which may include restoring the supply of goods to Nagorno Karabakh via the Lachin corridor and simultaneously using other routes. Meanwhile, Azerbaijan should finally present its vision of the future of Nagorno Karabakh Armenians, with a detailed description of their rights and mechanisms to protect them. The general statements about Armenians having the same rights as any other Azerbaijani citizen according to the Azerbaijani constitution are not sufficient. Otherwise, even if a short-term solution alleviates the humanitarian disaster in Nagorno Karabakh, the crisis will remain there,with no light at the end of the tunnel.
As the humanitarian crisis deepens in the self-proclaimed Nagorno Karabakh Republic and tens of thousands of people have found themselves in a daily struggle to get basic food, hygiene products, and other goods, discussions are underway in Armenia, Azerbaijan, and within the international community about ways out. Azerbaijan has its vision of the situation. According to Baku, if the international community, including Armenia, recognizes Nagorno Karabakh as part of Azerbaijan, then no one should reject supplying goods to Nagorno Karabakh from Azerbaijan. Many in Baku view this option as the first step towards the gradual reintegration of Nagorno Karabakh into Azerbaijan's economic and later political sphere.
Armenia accuses Azerbaijan of organizing a genocide against Armenians of Nagorno Karabakh. Simultaneously, Armenia did not withdraw its recognition of Nagorno Karabakh as part of Azerbaijan but took steps to mount international pressure on Azerbaijan to restore the supplies via the Lachin corridor. Armenia rejects to negotiate on this issue with Azerbaijan, stating that Azerbaijan and Russia should return to the realization of the November 10, 2020, trilateral statement, according to which the Lachin corridor (5 km wide) which will ensure the communication between Nagorno Karabakh and Armenia shall remain under the control of the peacekeeping contingent of the Russian Federation. Meanwhile, the Armenian government argues that it has never discussed the possibility of using the Aghdam – Stepanakert road for supplies, as it has no authority to discuss such issues.
Armenia also applied to the UN Security Council to convene a special session on this issue and, during the discussions of August 16, reiterated its call for the opening of the Lachin Corridor, according to the November 10 trilateral statement and the ICJ decisions of February and July 2023.
Many representatives of the international community, including the US, the EU, and Russia, called for the immediate opening of the Lachin corridor and restoration of supplies of goods to Nagorno Karabakh, acknowledging Azerbaijan's willingness to use other routes to deliver goods to the region. However, there was a clear line: other routes, particularly the Aghdam – Stepanakert road, could not become alternatives to the Lachin corridor. According to several sources, Russia offered to start supplies from Aghdam and the next day re-open the Lachin corridor, using both routes simultaneously, and organizing a meeting between Nagorno Karabakh Armenians and the Azerbaijani government in Azerbaijan to discuss the details. However, after Azerbaijani border guards arrested Vagif Khachatryan, whilst he was in a vehicle of the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) crossing the Azerbaijani checkpoint in the Lachin corridor on the way to receive medical treatment in Armenia, the Nagorno Karabakh authorities refused to meet with Azerbaijani representatives in Azerbaijan.
The ongoing humanitarian crisis in Nagorno Karabakh created domestic political tensions. There were rumors about the possible resignation of President Arayik Harutyunyan, which his press secretary later rejected. The former state minister of the self-proclaimed Nagorno Karabakh Republic, Ruben Vardanyan, publicly accused Arayik Harutyunyan of changing his positions too often and thus creating confusion in the republic. On August 25, state minister Gurgen Nersisyan stated that it was necessary to appeal to Russia and all other actors interested in the situation with a proposal to organize a meeting with Azerbaijan. He also stated that as no one could guarantee the physical safety of the citizens of Nagorno Karabakh in the territory of Azerbaijan, the meeting could take place at the Russian peacekeepers' headquarters or any other safe place in the presence of a third party.
Nagorno Karabakh Armenians continue to reject the option of receiving goods from Azerbaijan, arguing that it will justify the blockade of the Lachin corridor and make the corridor's opening less likely. At the core, the issue around the supply routes to Nagorno Karabakh is centered on the region's future. As Armenians of Nagorno Karabakh reject the possibility of being a part of Azerbaijan, they fear that any supplies from Azerbaijan will make that outcome more likely. Meanwhile, Azerbaijan continues to reject the possibility of restoring supplies of goods via the Lachin corridor, arguing that the route can be used only for medical transportation from Nagorno Karabakh to Armenia.
In the current situation, discussions started in Nagorno Karabakh and Armenia that the only alternative to accepting supplies from Azerbaijan is the call to the international community to organize a large-scale evacuation of Armenians from Nagorno Karabakh. The logic behind this way of thinking is clear. If all external actors, including Armenia, recognize that the conflict should be solved by recognizing Nagorno Karabakh as part of Azerbaijan, and only Armenians of Nagorno Karabakh are against this option, they alone cannot resist the pressure of Azerbaijan. Thus, the only way not to be part of Azerbaijan is to leave Nagorno Karabakh. Some may believe this is a workable solution, which may solve the problem once and for all.
However, besides the legal, moral, and logistical impediments to implementing such an initiative, it will become a geopolitical disaster for the region. It will only deepen the mistrust and hatred between Armenians and Azerbaijanis and prepare a subsequent cycle of violence in the future, as Armenians will take all steps to avenge such a national humiliation.
There are no optimal solutions that will satisfy all sides. The choice will be made between bad, worse, and the worst options. The only way out is to find a "middle way," which may include restoring the supply of goods to Nagorno Karabakh via the Lachin corridor and simultaneously using other routes. Meanwhile, Azerbaijan should finally present its vision of the future of Nagorno Karabakh Armenians, with a detailed description of their rights and mechanisms to protect them. The general statements about Armenians having the same rights as any other Azerbaijani citizen according to the Azerbaijani constitution are not sufficient. Otherwise, even if a short-term solution alleviates the humanitarian disaster in Nagorno Karabakh, the crisis will remain there,with no light at the end of the tunnel.
source: Benyamin Poghosyan is a Senior Fellow on foreign policy at APRI Armenia and the founder and Chairman of the Centre for Political and Economic Strategic Studies in Yerevan.
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